Sadiq, Mohammed Sanusi and Grema, Isiyaku Jawa
The present study empirically investigate the magnitude of instability in agricultural sub sector at the state level and sub-state levels in the light of new technologies with focal point of consideration been Rajasthan state in India. Instability issues in Indian agriculture continues to draw attention of researchers since adoption of green revolution technology, causing serious shocks to supply and farm income, hence growing concern about increased volatility in farm production, farm income and prices. Time series data on important variables like area, production and productivity, covering post-green revolution period spanning from 1994 to 2015 were compiled from various published sources. In all, 17 crops cultivated in 23 potential districts of the state were selected, and data analysis was achieved using Coefficient of Variation and Instability Index. Results observed high instability in area as well as in productivity growth in all the selected study districts. Positive productivity growth with declining instability was observed in Nagaur district for bajra crop, Alwar and Bharatpur for wheat crop, Jaipur for barley crop and Kota district for coriander crop. Districts which remained more instable but recorded positive productivity growth in period II were Barmer for moth and bajra crops, respectively; Ajmer and Tonk for jowar; Udaipur and Bhilwara for maize; Jaipur, Bikaner and Sawai-Madhopur for groundnut crop; Jaipur, Sri-Ganganagar, Bundi and Kota for wheat crop; Tonk, Bharatpur, SriGanganagar and Alwar for rapeseed and mustard crop; Bikaner for taramira crop; Jhunjhunu for gram crop; and Barmer for cumin crop. However, Kota district with respect to soyabean crop became more instable with positive growth rate in period II. These districts exhibited some promise and required serious policy directions that could tackle instability. Chittore district exhibited increasing instability and negative productivity growth for maize and groundnut crops, respectively, thus losing districts. Districts showing transformation from more instable and positive growth rate to more instable and negative growth were also categorized as losing districts for the production of respective crop(s). These are Barmer district for moth crop; Jodhpur, Nagaur and Pali districts respectively, for sesamum crop; Nagaur and Pali districts for jowar crop; Nagaur and Jodhpur districts for moong crop; Churu, Barmer and Nagaur districts respectively, for guar crop; Churu and Jodhpur districts for bajra crop; Sawai-Madhopur for rapeseed and mustard crop; Pali and Nagaur for taramira crop; Jaipur, Churu and Sri-Ganganagar for gram crop; Ajmer for barley, and Jalore for cumin crop.
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